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Polls: McCrory Leads Perdue In Rematch
About 1,000 North Carolinians who are registered to vote (although might never actually do so) say they’d prefer former Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory to be Governor, rather than the current occupant of the office – Bev Perdue.
Two polls released in the past week support what everyone in NC politics already assumes: That Governor Perdue is a dead woman walking … and that she has been since candidate Barack Obama dragged her listless political body across the finish line in 2008.
The first poll is from the liberal outfit Public Policy Polling – which doesn’t exactly inspire a lot of confidence, as some local Democratic strategists believe the organization’s 2010 numbers left a bit of a “mess in the bed.” PPP finds the Democrat incumbent trailing the likely Republican challenger by 11 points (48% – 38%). She was trailing him by 14 points at the beginning of 2011.
What’s funny is how the folks at PPP are spinning this. The headline of the news release is “Perdue cuts into McCrory lead.” The statement starts off with: “North Carolina voters’ opinion of Governor Bev Perdue’s job performance is at its best since January.”
Well huzzah, huzzah!! Who knew that a 35-49 approval-disapproval ranking was so fantastic? While the Governor enjoys a 2-1 margin of support among Democrats (they love it when she vetoes bills by the evil GOP), her support among the Republicans is an anemic 13%.
But the most frightening thing for her re-election campaign must be the independents, who disapprove of her (27 – 57). They don’t like her much at all. Now, PPP tries to spin this as just another sad sign of the times, saying she cannot “…rely on the crutch of bipartisanship in this bitterly divided climate.”
So, it’s the CLIMATE. That’s why independents don’t approve of her. Right.
That same poll notes that Bev Perdue is among the least popular governors in America. Dang climate.
The second poll that confirms the dreadful PPP numbers comes from the conservative Civitas Institute, which finds McCrory would beat her 51% – 39%. She’s down double digits among independents, too (53% – 42%).
Her approval stands at 40% while disapproval is 52%. Whites don’t like her performance (22% – 58%) but blacks do (60% – 33%). Of particular concern, again, is that independents give her low approval marks (39% – 53%).
I might add her disapproval numbers are higher than her approval numbers in every part of the state – except Raleigh. Naturally.
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don’t let anyone fool you though….this will be a nail-biter to the end.
You think the Democratic National Committee is holding its convention in Charlotte just so’s they can go to Lowe’s Motor Speedway and take a victory lap over there?
They are going to throw millions and millions of dollars at McCrory and every other Republican who stands in the way of another Obama sweep in North Carolina.
This state has never seen the likes of what is about to start hitting us, not Hunt/Helms; not Gantt/Helms; not even Duke/Carolina….ever.
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Indeed. Just as Obama beat McCrory in 2008, it will be up to Obama’s machine (and the DNC) to repeat the performance in 2012.
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Frank and I don’t often agree, but I think he’s right here. Obama’s been in California this week raising money, and I’m sure a bunch of it’ll be spent right here in NC.
I just wish the GOP gubernatorial candidate it’ll be spent to defeat was…you know…a conservative.
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We agree. The point (poorly made) I was driving at is that McCrory beats Perdue in a head-to-head match-up. Beats her by double-digits. If Perdue is to win again, she will need some long Obama coattails – as well as national money, volunteers, and support.
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No argument here. Perdue can’t win on her own merits. If she does, it’ll be because she got an Obama Bailout.
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I don’t want to underestimate the importance of spending, but when Pat McCrory united his big spending light rail interests in Tampa to raise taxes (yes, the same Pat McCrory that claims to be a conservative), they outspent their opponents 100:1 and lost (http://www.bizjournals.com/tampabay/blog/2010/11/2010-vote-on-transit-tax-spending.html). Point – a good strong message that resonates with the voters is of most importance. As Reagan put it, “We must speak with bold colors, not pastels”. Why have Republicans turned their backs on the strategy Reagan used to win two landslide victories?
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Not that we’re ever likely to see it, but just for fun: who wins in a McCrory/Foxx mayoral tilt?
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don’t discount Scott Stone who is running for Mayor this year….he is going to run a good campaign…he knows what he is doing.
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I’ve gathered the same impression of Scott. He’s definately not a “throw away” candidate for the office and I wish him well.
As to Mark’s hypothetical, I’d say given the climate and demographics 10 years ago, McCrory wins versus Foxx hands down. Today it’s a different ballgame. While a McCrory (or Stone) can conceivably win, it will be an uphill battle.
After another 5 or 10 years of current trends, I don’t believe we’ll ever see another Republican Mayor, barring scandle from the other side.
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I wish I felt good about either Pat McCrory or Scott Stone. Both give great monologue speeches about being conservatives, but when you nail them on specifics its the same old “spend, spend, spend” for the sake of the big government special interests that are backing their campaigns. McCrory made three trips to Tampa last year advising them how to raise sales taxes for light rail, and Scott thinks spending 800 million+ to extend the Blue Line to the University area is a great idea although he can’t give a good reason why. Republicans keep losing because they think they must have candidates that can compromise to get that great “middle” voter no one seems able to define. Look what happened with McCain and Lassiter, two of the most left leaning candidates in their respective fields. Lassiter couldn’t beat a liberal, Foxx, at the height of the conservative uprising (1 year after Obama was elected). Christy won in NJ, about as blue a state as one can find, and nobody ever accused Christy of being a compromiser. Tea party candidates that give the conservative majority a reason to get out and vote have been winning across the country. Why do we always assume the Independents are Independents because they are left of center when election results show conservative districts aren’t excited about getting out to vote for left leaning Republicans? Its as if our campaign “experts” all read the same play book that was probably written by a liberal. When will we learn we can’t win by playing to the strengths of our opponents?
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Lassiter won because he (and the Mecklenburg Republican Party) were terrified that putting up any sort of campaign at all against a black candidate that might paint them as racist, so they rolled over and gave the election to Foxx, who swept in on Obama’s coatails.
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Fellas:
Mayor Foxx won by the ‘landslide’ margin of only 3000 votes in 2009. It is not like there is some sort of ‘guarantee’ that a Democrat will win that seat or any at-large seat in Mecklenburg County for every single election in the future.
a person only has to win about 60,000 votes in a mayoral election to win that race. There are that many votes in South Charlotte alone.
It is a matter of organizing and getting people out to vote…just like in any other election. You need to connect with Scott…he knows what he is doing….
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Frank, agreed with you about Scott. He is a real candidate. What I’m seeing demographically is a GOP registration in Charlotte of 120,250 and a Democrat registration of 232,417. It all comes down to independents and party turnout. We need both in order to win. Not impossible, but tough.
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I haven’t looked at the numbers but I am guessing the Independent/Unaffiliated registered vote in Charlotte must be about 80k-100k by now?
There’s more than 60,000 votes between the I’s and the R’s notwithstanding business-oriented D’s in Charlotte.
It is all a matter of turnout….you should contact Scott.
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Ronald Reagan said anyone who agrees with you 75% of the time is your friend.
Holding every candidate to 100% ideological purity tests means none of your candidates are ever going to get elected. I am sure that there are more than a few things that Christie will do or has done that will not meet your standards…..
Here’s one of my’ favorites’….Tea Party candidates and members who ‘rail’ against ‘BIG GUVMINT!’……but then have the temerity to also say; “I will never cut Medicare!’ and ‘Keep Your Government Hands off of My Medicare!’
70% of Tea Party members polled believe that.
I am a small government, fiscal conservative of the nth degree but even those sentiments from the Tea Party doesn’t make me ‘hate them’ because I know they are needed to win any election nowadays for people who agree with me even 50%+1 that we need to reduce spending…somewhere and everywhere.
Scott Stone is more ‘like you’ in those sentiments overall isn’t he….or is Mayor Foxx more in alignment with your beliefs 75%+…in which case you should vote for him.
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My gut tells me that Scott is aiming towards a revenue-neutral budget overall, meaning that if he advocates some increases in some parts of the budget, he would more than support offsets elsewhere in the budget in terms of budget decreases.
at least that is what true fiscal conservatives used to do in my experience. Since 2001, ‘conservatives’ (sic) in Washington have just been ‘less spending than those guys over there!’…and that don’t feed the bulldog.
Scott is a good guy….give him a chance…..you’ll wind up liking and supporting him. Unless you are a Foxx supporter that is.
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Polls aren’t news. At this time in 1991, nobody had heard of Bill Clinton. At this time in 2003, John Kerry was polling at 2% among Democrats.
RE: Mayor Fratboy. There’s a reason why all the bigwig Democrats supported McFratboy: HE’S A DEMOCRAT. Yes Mr. Hill, someone who agrees with you 75% of the time is your friend. Pat McCrory is NOT the conservative/libertarian’s friend. He is not your friend on the arena. He is not your friend on light rail. He is not your friend on “synergy like you’ve never seen before”. Name me ONE significant issue on which McCrory took a bold limited-government stand. ONE. Maybe you’re not my friend either, Mr. Hill.
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I think Mayor McCrory used the veto as often as President Ford did to stop passage of many bills that were excessive in nature. Ford used the veto pen 66 times in 2.5 years. W? 0 vetoes on spending bills.
Musicmax: I am not sure we have been properly introduced or else perhaps we already are friends!
be that as it may, anyone who believes in smaller government is a friend of mine. You can vote for the other guy who likes more government spending if you would like to….
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Here’s how this works: You answer the question and then we have what’s called a “dialog”.
Name me ONE significant issue on which McCrory took a bold limited-government stand.
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My home-town loyalties make me prone to support McCrory…except that with all the talk lately about cronyism with the CRVA, and Harry Jones, et al…I have to say that Pat presided over the longest era of said cronyism in Charlotte’s history…Pat, and indeed all of the republicans withy the exception of the buffoonish Bill James have never done anything about the cronyism and outright corruption in Charlote government, law and business…and in fact are neck deep in it. It is the “Charlotte Way” – if you want to get elected, get promoted at the bank or law firm, or win your child custody case…you better be well connected and, if you don’t have your own hand in the till you better look the other way when the cash drawer is open. Pat talks a good game now…but he looked the other way for quite awhile…
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Dolley, just remember those things you mentioned are all creatures of the County Commission, not the City Council.
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Mr. Mercer, You might want to visit CRVA’s website sometime before posting more ignorant drivel:
“Management staff of the CRVA reports directly to the board which in turn is accountable to the City of Charlotte and the Mayor’s office.”
Tim Newman became CEO of CRVA in November 2004, while Mayor Fratboy was still in office.
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I’ll freely own up to my mistakes. My assumption is that most things tied to Harry Jones are shady while you can’t pinpoint anything McCrory did to enrich himself while he was in office.
Next time you want to take me on, grow a pair and sign your name to it instead of hiding behind a computer. That’s teenage crap. Unless you’re a teenager, in which case you need to get out of your mom’s basement and do something with your life.
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Let me be clear: I do NOT believe McCrory would ever personally benefit in a directly monetary manner – I think he is a good man. And I don’t think MOST public “servants” benefit in an overtly monetary way…but the corruption of “belonging” is in many ways more insidious and harmful than out and out graft. I’m a midwesterner who lived in Dilworth, Myers Park and Foxcroft for many years…and I don’t know if it is a southern thing or a uniquely Charlotte thing…but you CANNOT be successful in this town without being in what amounts to the “ruling class” in Charlotte – comprised of both limosine liberals and “moderate” Republicans like McCrory. Being rich is a given although not enough, and in some cases not even necessary (noble reporters/activitists, etc get a pass on that) to be in the club. But you must have attended the right schools, vacation at the right beach, know the right people, live in on the right street in the right nieghborhood, go to the right church, and above all share the same (genteel, cultured) world view. These people dominate CMS, banks, businesses, the press, the law firms/courts and indeed government at every level. They regard the taxpayers as a bunch of racists rednecks or incompetent poor people who would destroy Charlotte and indeed themselves without ruling class intervention and control. Only they are qualified and entitled to make us behave the way that is “best for us” (with our own tax money.) And if these “good works” (coincidentally) benefit themselves and their cronies, why, they are doing the people’s and indeed the Lord’s work, and any money made on the deal is incidental! Now that that Pat is out of the Mayors office he does not have to go along to get along anymore…and is in fact speaking up a bit more. But even that strikes me as a tad opportunistic. ( “I was for it before I was against it”). – Rebecca Lynne Martin
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Yet another ignoramus who never heard of the anonymously-penned Federalist Papers.
Regarding McCrory, why don’t you ask Pete Kaliner or Tara Servatius how many times Mayor Fratboy answered the phone at his Duke Energy “job”. Here’s his number at Moore & Van Allen: (704) 331-1042. Call him and see if he answers there either.
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Rebecca, Charlotte is not alone in having a contemptuous, patronizing, and exclusive ruling class.
If you haven’t seen it already, check out this great article about just this phenomena being played out at the national level:
http://spectator.org/archives/2010/07/16/americas-ruling-class-and-the/print
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OOPS – I meant to say Lassiter FAILED to win….
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Dolley, the only thing Mayor Fratboy is “speaking up” about is taking hundreds of millions of dollars in tax money for transit in every city that will pay his speaking fees and amplify his microphone.
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As an aside, the Charlotte Chamber’s Bob Morgan likes (3 months ago anyway) Bev because she’s doing everything the Chamber asks of her. So his question is why does she get the bad poll numbers?
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In Mr. Mercer’s defense, not that he needs it cause he said it pretty well by himself, everyone knew who ‘Publius’ etc. were behind the advocacy in the extremely thoughtful and well-written Federalist Papers. Madison, Hamilton, Jay…they were pretty famous and had done a lot in public service to that point in time.
Plus they were gentlemenly enough not to berate and call others ‘ignoramuses’ out in public.
So unmask yourself, Mr. MusicMax and let’s continue the polite civil discourse as to why Pat McCrory might be a good Governor or not when compared to the incumbent.
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