10 in ’12
As a student and professor of politics, I enjoy predicting what will happen in the political realm in the near future. Given the potentially tumultuous nature of the upcoming 2012 election, I have decided to stick my neck out there and make some predictions about what will happen in the next 12 months. I am sure some of these predictions will be wrong, but I will make them anyway. So here are Professor Slone’s Ten in ’12.
1) Mitt Rising
Mitt Romney will be the GOP nominee for president. No other candidate will appeal to a broad enough spectrum of conservative voters. Mitt has the resources, the organization, and the political chops to win the nomination and he is off to a great start winning the first two events (Iowa and New Hampshire) in the primary/caucus process.
2) TEA ANYONE?
The Tea Party movement will still be a force in 2012 although maybe not as much as it was in the 2010 season. Disenchantment with some of the hot beverage socialite favorites from the 2010 election will cause some to sour on the movement and label it as ineffective. GOP nominees will still seek Tea Party endorsements.
3) It’s the Economy Stupid
The economy will continue to improve at least in terms of unemployment and perception. People will tire of constant frugality which will lead to more spending which will lead to more growth etc etc etc. It won’t be back to pre-2008 numbers but the spin will lead everyone to believe it is better than it really appears to be.
4) Da Doo Ron Ron Ron Paul
Ron Paul will continue to play a spoiler role in the GOP nominating process. He will win at most 1-2 states but it won’t matter much in the delegate count. His supporters will continue to advocate for their candidate right up to the end. He will finish at best second and maybe third to one of….
5) GingrichsantorumPerryHuntsmania
So who will be left standing from the group of 4 GOP hopefuls? Perry has resources, Gingrich is likely facing his last election, Huntsman is having trouble raising money and Santorum has a deficit of personality. My guess is that Gingrich will fight the longest of these 4 as this is it for him. He has been running a shoestring campaign so even if he doesn’t get much $$ coming his way in the next several weeks it won’t matter much. Perry has already thought seriously about dropping out and Huntsman seems to concerned with the strain on his family. That leaves Santorum who could challenge Gingrich for 3rd place. He’s young enough to come back in 4 years or 8 years. Still I think Gingrich stays in the longest.
6) Tomato or Tomatoe?
Who will be the VP nominee? Betting money says Marco Rubio and I think that’s correct. Rubio is a rising star in the party and a VP nomination is another feather in his cap for an eventual presidential run one day. It also doesn’t hurt any that he is of Hispanic ethnicity which is a crucial segment of the population for the GOP. Florida will be a swing state and a Rubio candidacy could help win that state and push Romney into the White House.
7) Iran
Iran’s nuclear ambitions and rhetoric are of great concern to many in America’s diplomatic core as well as its’ intelligence agencies. Ahmadinejad’s comments about shutting down the Strait of Hormuz has raised a lot of eyebrows from Riyadh to Tel Aviv to Tokyo to Washington. Whether the Iranians are all bark and no bite is an issue up for debate. It’s safe to say that the US will be watching Iran very closely in 2012 and armed conflict is not out of the question.
8) Congress-smongress
Many are predicting a GOP takeover in the Senate and that is what will happen but it won’t be a filibuster proof margin by a long shot. Look for a 53-47 GOP majority at best. In the House, the GOP is likely to maintain their lead but won’t gain many more seats if any. In the end the GOP will have both houses of Congress back under their control.
9) “Mr Speaker, The President of the United States…”
Will be Barack Obama. Yes it’s true. Obama will beat Romney in a close election. The benefits of a huge organizing framework, limitless funds, an improving economy, a weak GOP candidate and a compliant media will all contribute to a second term for Obama. The electoral count could be really close given Obama and Romney will split many swing states but in the end Obama will snatch victory from the jaws of defeat which leads to…
10) MORE GRIDLOCK
A GOP Congress and a Democratic White House will lead to more budget wrangling, debt ceiling games of chicken, finger pointing and increased partisanship. All of this will set the stage for a brutal 2014 campaign season and a Christie-Rubio ticket (or vice versa) in 2016. Let’s just hope the world ends in December.
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