About that $70 Billion…
“We have $70 billion in road needs and only $11 billion to pay the bill.”
It’s a lament commonly used to justify toll lanes. We heard it at the candidate forum last week, and we’ll probably hear it at the next one tomorrow night. But how did NCDOT come up with that $70 billion figure, and what went into it?
Last month NCDOT released their ranked list of road projects. If you sum up every project- all 1,730 of them- the total comes out to around $70 billion. So that answers the first question. To answer the second, we did some digging through the list… and found some startling results.
Expensive statewide projects dominated by tolls
In the “statewide” category, 9 out of the 10 most expensive projects are toll roads or toll lanes. A brief summary of each:
- Cape Fear Crossing ($901M). Business spur (tolled) connecting US 17 to downtown Wilmington.
- US74 Toll Road ($775M). New section of road for the northern section of the Winston-Salem beltway.
- Garden Parkway ($750M). Toll road from I-85 to airport. Significant local opposition.
- Monroe Bypass ($741M). Toll road around US74 east of Charlotte. Five town boards passed resolutions opposing.
- I-40 Toll Lanes ($1.8B). Three projects to add toll lanes from Durham to downtown Raleigh.
- NC 540 Tri-Ex. ($856 M). Two projects extending NC’s only currently operating toll road. Connects Durham to Holly Springs.
- US 52 widening ($500M). The only project on the list that is not tolled, adds general lanes from I40 to the proposed toll extension.
The toll projects add up to $6.4 billion but the “cost to the NCDOT” is only $4.6 billion. So we’re told we get infrastructure at a one-third discount if we build toll roads. That’s because the difference will be paid for with toll revenue bonds as opposed to tax receipts. Surety for the bonds is guaranteed by anticipated toll revenues so the bonds do not affect the state’s borrowing capacity.
This is why tolling is such an opiate to bureaucrats and politicians alike: it allows the state to borrow billions without having to keep it on their books. The problem, of course, is that at some point you have to pay back the loans.
If North Carolina’s first venture into tolling is any indication, that’s not likely to happen. In about a year and a half of operation the TriEx has totaled $24M in revenue. The cost to operate the toll road during that same period was $21M. That only leaves $3M to pay back the loan. Debt payments don’t kick in until 2019, but when they do it will cost around $50M annually. Unless toll revenue increase heroically, we’re looking at a $47M annual shortfall.
That shortfall will have to be met with a different revenue source… like current funding streams. Compounding the tragedy, NCDOT will waste over $20M per year to “operate” a road that, if it were not tolled, would not cost a dime to operate.
NCDOT’s infatuation with tolling assumes the roads they’re building are needed or even wanted. In at least two instances that’s hardly the case. They’re charging ahead with the Monroe Bypass despite two lawsuits and the objections of five towns along the route. The Garden Parkway is basically supported by land speculators along the route but opposed by just about everyone else in the area. And the folks in Wake and Forsyth counties have yet to awaken to the possibility of toll roads in their backyard.
Questionable regional priorities
That $70 billion of road “needs” contains more than a few head scratchers in the “regional” category. The most expensive projects are new roads, usually four lanes, connecting small towns. Topping the list is a $717 million project for a new four-lane road from Lenoir (population 19,000) to Tarboro (population 11,000). US401 “needs” to be widened from around Fayetteville to Wilmington at a cost of over $500 million. There’s a “need” for a new four-lane road from Kinston (population 22,000) to Wilson (population 50,000) at a cost of $464 million.
And then there’s a $306 million widening of NC-33 between Grimesland (population 400- yes 400!) to Aurora (population 505- yes, 505!). So NCDOT believes there’s a “need” to connect these two towns- less than a thousand people combined- with the equivalent capacity of I-77. A thousand vehicles is about what I-77 carries in 16 minutes through Lake Norman.
In the “salt in the wound” category, NCDOT has identified a “need” widen US-401 to six general purpose lanes heading into Raleigh. That stretch of road carries a little over 30,000 vehicles per day, or about a third of what I-77 carries through Lake Norman. The cost is $92 million, about what a pair of general purpose lanes would cost in our area.
Finally, there’s my favorite: $202 million for a Mocksville bypass. Mocksville has a population of 5,000, and already has a bypass. It’s called Interstate 40.
The top 30 or so most expensive regional widening projects- all roads in rural areas- total about $5 billion. New bypasses around “metropolises” like Fuquay-Varina, Wilkesboro, Red Springs and Lillington add another $600 million or so.
Division needs
It’s difficult to make an assessment of actual needs at the division level because it comprises local roads across the state. Needs for these projects are based on local situations which quite frankly would take weeks to pour through. Besides, the state has a staff of professionals doing just that…right? These smaller ticket items- about 600+ projects- total $10 billion.
What to do
As the above examples illustrate, there are projects of dubious merit that we are told are absolute needs.
Now that you know better, the next time you hear a politician wax on about “$70 billion in road needs” you might want to cite a few of the above examples. The re-calibration would benefit us all.
Because NCDOT- and our politicians- should realize there’s a sixty billion dollar difference between “wants” and “needs.”
Here’s the official project list: STI – 9 24 14 P3.0_Total_Scores
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