Ballot Blues For BO
What a story: Barack Obama wins only 79 % of the Democratic voters in our state’s primary contested only with “No Preference.” What does this tell us of the poll support for Obama, of which we hear so much about? I can’t say, but I can say his own people don’t like him. Of course if Obama had his way, that would be the ballot in the General Election and he would declare himself winner with 80% of the vote.
Concurrently, Mitt Romney, the presumptive nominee for the Republicans, only garnered 65% of the Republican primary votes, with Paul getting 11%, Santorum 10%, Gingrich 7% and, funny thing, “No Preference” pulling 5% of the Republican vote.
Does this portend anything for the General Election? It is difficult to tell. The economy is muddling along, doing better but people are generally not happy with our political leaders’ actions in what they are doing about it. And there are other issues such as: what will Ron Paul do with his supporters? If he runs a separate campaign, he’ll take most of his voters with him and the Republicans are left with a tough proposition. So for this short prediction, we’ll presume everything remains the same – LOL.
For this scenario, only Romney, Obama and the Libertarian are on November’s ballot. One can hardly assume that all the Democrats and Republicans who voted “No Preference” will vote against the Prez so we make two assumptions, but both presume that they all will vote for someone: If 50% of the Democrats who voted “No Preference” vote Republican and similarly 50% of the Republicans who voted “No Preference” vote Democrat and all others stay with their party, then Romney wins 54% to 45%. The numbers change a bit if only 25% of the “No Preference” voters go the other way: Romney wins 52% to 48%.
It is difficult to imagine very many Democrats who would vote for Obama in the General Election if they voted for “No Preference” in an uncontested ballot. And, as stated previously, there are many other inputs into this contest. But at this point, it seems obvious there are a lot of Democrats who are not happy with the prospect of Obama as their choice for a candidate, and who will likely vote for someone else.
The point of this exercise is to entertain the pleasant idea that after November we’ll be rid of the worst excuse for a President in ever.
We need your help! If you like PunditHouse, please consider donating to us. Even $5 a month can make a difference!
Short URL: https://pundithouse.com/?p=9785
