Dalton Slices Into McCrory’s Lead
The double-digit lead Republican Pat McCrory held over Democrat Walton Dalton has evaporated like so much pixie dust in the wind, to the point where the state’s gubernatorial race is nearly a dead heat within the margin of error of the latest Rasmussen poll that finds McCrory leading Dalton by only 5 points (46% to 41%), with 3 percent of respondents preferring some other candidate and a sizeable 10 percent undecided.
The Argo Journal breaks down some of the poll’s internals here:
McCrory has 76% support among his fellow Republicans. Similarly, 72% of Democrats like Dalton. The Republican leads by 30 points among voters not affiliated with either of the major political parties.
McCrory holds an eight-point lead among male voters but leads by just three among female voters. He trails Dalton 29% to 51% among voters under 40 but holds double-digit leads among older voters.
Fifty-eight percent (58%) of whites support McCrory. Seventy-eight percent (78%) of blacks and 56% of voters of other races favor Dalton.
Most married voters prefer the GOP candidate, while the Democrat leads among those who are not married.
McCrory is viewed very favorably by 24% of North Carolina voters and very unfavorably by 14%. Seventeen percent (17%) share a very favorable opinion of Dalton, while 12% regard him very unfavorably.
McCrory’s overall 5-point advantage compares to a comfortable 14-point lead found during Rasmussen’s June polling, building off a 9-point advantage McCrory had held steady the previous two months. So either the latest Rasmussen poll bumped into some kind of anomaly, or McCrory is headed in exactly the wrong direction and with potential cataclysmic speed.
Other surveys point to the later as being possible. The Real Clear Politics sampling average of four polls (Rasmussen, Civitas, PPP, NBC/Marist) spanning June 24 to Aug. 1 shows McCrory at +6, not exactly a ringing endorsement for a candidate who holds a staggering campaign war chest advantage.
More to the point, McCrory is facing an incumbent lieutenant governor, the right-hand man of a hugely unpopular governor, whose main campaign platform is more taxes, in a state where the real unemployment rate stands at 17.5 percent, the third highest in the country, and the local Democrat party is in utter shambles and reeling from scandal that has left it a veritable punching bag for national ridicule.
And McCrory has slipped to a 5-point lead? With 10 percent undecided up for grabs? With McCrory continuing to run a tepid campaign full of pledges to not let the attack dogs loose and waffling on tax hikes?
Gulp.
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